Our 3 best bets, with Kylian Mbappé, Lionel Messi and PSG (February 19-20)

After last weekend’s thrilling Ligue 1 games, which included a winner on the death of Paris Saint-Germain star Kylian Mbappé, another big roster of fixtures is upon us in the French top flight.
Eight of last weekend’s 10 games were limited to one goal, making for some exciting games despite the lack of goals.
With 10 more games on the schedule, a few matches present interesting betting opportunities, including PSG heading to Nantes and an interesting game between Saint-Étienne and Strasbourg.
Best Ligue 1 bets
Nantes v PSG
Nantes coast | +600 |
PSG odds | -215 |
To design | +370 |
More less | 2.5 (-170 / +135) |
day | Time | saturday | 3 p.m. ET |
How to watch | to be sporty |
Odds via DraftKings. Keep up to date Soccer odds here. |
Week after week I preach the value of the demise of a PSG team that overstepped its advanced metrics, and every week it punishes me in cold blood.
Last Friday, it was Mbappé’s overtime winner who stole three points on a flat performance. The Parisians held the xG advantage in the match by a margin of 0.80-0.59, but one of the best attacking tandems in the world – if not the best – found a moment of magic to put the dagger in the heart of Rennes.
That’s what great players do, and that’s what Lionel Messi and Mbappe did. They will have another intriguing test this week in the form of a trip to Nantes, a mid-table team with average attack and average defense.
Although PSG played a Champions League game in midweek, it will be relatively fresh with just three games played in eight days. However, that doesn’t mean the Parisians will be heading for victory.
I am again intrigued by the value one can have with Nantes, despite the consistent generation of results that PSG create. There simply has to be a regression for a team that has the best conversion rate in the league and only has a clip of 0.51 xG/game away.
Nantes enjoy a 0.27 xG/game margin at home, so knocking out PSG again with major juice will be the path I’ll choose, and I’ll prepare to have my heart ripped out once again.
Zimmerman’s Choice: Nantes +0.5 (+175)
Saint-Étienne against Strasbourg
The Saint-Étienne odds | +205 |
Strasbourg odds | +140 |
To design | +240 |
More less | 2.5 (-110 / -115) |
day | Time | sunday | 9 a.m. ET |
How to watch | to be sporty |
Odds via DraftKings. Keep up to date Soccer odds here. |
It’s not often that the fourth-placed team in the league battles with a team in the relegation zone and the odds are that tight, but this is one of those cases.
Saint-Étienne come into this game having won three league games in a row, and although their victory against Angers was down to nothing and it was a lucky touch to get by Clermont Foot, there is no doubt that the level of Saint-Étienne has increased just in time.
Only one point separates 16th from 20th place in Ligue 1, each point counting with 14 matchdays to play on the programme. Strasbourg are on their own winning streak and the Champions League dreamers have the same need to get a result.
A victory would allow Strasbourg to keep the pressure on Nice for that third position in the league, while Saint-Étienne could realistically move up to 16th with a win.
I see a close tie here, and the odds reflect that, but considering that Saint-Étienne have become a different team lately and have a better xG/home differential than Strasbourg on the road, the team receiving the better the price is a no-brainer.
Zimmerman’s Choice: Saint-Étienne — Draw No Bet (+115)
Reims against Brest
Reims odds | +140 |
Brest odds | +220 |
To design | +225 |
More less | 2.5 (+115 / -140) |
day | Time | sunday | 9 a.m. ET |
How to watch | to be sporty |
Odds via DraftKings. Keep up to date Soccer odds here. |
Of the three games on this pick list, it’s the one with the least relevance to league results at the macro level, but that doesn’t mean it won’t be a solid game.
Reims play a very compact style which often creates low scoring matches. Only two of Reims’ last 12 games have scored more than three goals, but it’s a style that has kept Reims in games when they haven’t played so well.
This will serve Reims well against a Brest team which tends to create margins when they are in front. In the last three games they have won, Brest have triumphed in each of them by a margin of two or more. Despite this, Brest’s -0.51 xG/game rating on the road is significantly lower than Reims’ 0.29 xG/game advantage at home.
I think this justifies supporting the price in Reims, even if it only brings a marginal advantage compared to what can be expected.
Zimmerman’s Choice: Reims ML (+140)
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