Depth Card Battle: Zack Moss or Devin Singletary?
Coming out of one of the busiest seasons we’ve seen (their highest neutral success rate since at least 2006), the Buffalo Bills’ return depth graph remains virtually unchanged, giving us a few precedents to work with. to determine which piece of the backfield we want on our fantastic teams. While the sheer percentage of plays that result in a passing attempt should decline at least a bit, Devin Singletary and Zack Moss still have to deal with quarterback Josh Allen’s rushing prowess, especially around the goal line.
Due to the passing play which strongly favors wide receivers over running backs, and Allen’s propensity to gobble up touchdowns on the goal line for himself, it’s important when we target that backfield that we left with the correct answer. Let’s take a look at which option – and which capital price project – should yield better fancy value.
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Zack Moss (Underdog ADP: 107.2, RB34)
Coming out of Utah as a powerful – albeit stiff – interior rusher who used his strength and erupted at the point of attack to rack up chunks of distance in the heart of the defense, Zack Moss looked to add a item missing from the Bills offense. Add to that bruising style a relatively large involvement in his college’s passing game (30+ targets in two separate seasons) and we had all the makings of a fantastic stud.
Moss saw the pitch abundantly in Week 1, registering a decent 45% instant share, but received nine rushes for 11 yards, including five for zero or negative footage. He received four targets in that game and turned one of them into a touchdown (on a suspended play from inside the five-yard line), but it would end up being a season-high in the targets early on, and he wouldn’t find any dirt in the air for the rest of the season. Moss missed three games with a foot injury shortly after the season opener and continued to absorb double-digit hits in just eight of his 13 games played (Singletary hit that number in 12 of the 16 games).
Disregarding a resounding Week 17 win that Moss and Singletary both ceded largely to third thread Antonio Williams, the rookie concluded his debut season with instant shares of 59%, 47% and 49%, distributing the workload more or less throughout the week. middle with his partner in crime. Moss finished the season with 128 runs, nearly half the number of Singletaries (255), and had 18 targets, which is good for eighth place on the team. It’s certainly a bummer for any fantasy player who thought he was going to steal the third role from him. What was definitely not a disappointment was his use as a goal-line back; Moss matched Josh Allen’s rush attempts inside the 10-yard line (15 each), converting four of them to touchdowns.
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Devin Singletary (Underdog ADP: 147.7, RB46)
In his own rookie 2019 season, Singletary took a bit of a while to get started, mostly due to a Week 2 injury that kept him from playing until Week 7 and partly because of the coaching staff’s insistence on keeping Frank Gore involved in the attacking game plan. Whether this continued involvement by Gore had anything to do with Singletary’s four fumbles in the latter half of the season is now a moot point as he reduced those infractions to just once in 2020.
Aside from the trial and error problem / non-issue, the entirety of last season compared to 2019 was essentially the same when it came to rushed play for Singletary; his Expected Added Points (EPA) went from a marginal rate of 0.01 per attempt to an equally marginal rate of -0.04 per attempt, his yards per carry went from 5.1 to 4.4, Broken tackles remained the same (19) and his forced missed tackles dropped by one, from 17 to 16. Where we saw an improvement in his game, especially in regards to the fantastic score, it was in the passing game, where his 29-194-2 stat line from his rookie season dropped to 38-269-0 in his sophomore year.
Overall, Devin Singletary hasn’t exactly rewritten the book on himself with last year’s performances, but if he’s in the midst of a slow transformation into a passing specialist who can sniffle 60 to 70 targets with occasional bursts of use in the racing game, we could be on something for fantastic purposes.
Which one should you write?
It would be the simplest answer to just say “neither”, raise your hands and walk away from that depth picture. Yet sometimes these are the specific situations from which we can derive the most whimsical value. Moss and Singletary are currently operating as RB3 and RB4 at the end of round eight and at the start of round 13, respectively, and that gives us a lot of leeway when considering what kind of exit we would need from this. project. Capital city. Although our priority should be whether last year’s use will continue until the 2021 season. Asked recently about this, offensive coordinator Brian Daboll replied:
“Whoever is over there is playing well. Let’s say you’re in a game and you just feel like one guy is having a little more fun than the other and this is the guy you ride around a bit. “
You must like a definitive answer like this. The dreaded quote of the “warm hand” approach is always good for a sigh and a temple massage. A more conclusive response came from Bills reporter Joe Buscaglia who mentioned not only that Moss “can take back the backfield in 2021 if he continues to improve, which could be an instant 60-70% player in the game. case of Bills “. It also suggested Singletary may become an inactive weekly. While not the most likely scenario, the fact that it’s even a possibility should give us pause.
Let’s say all this pontification is just smoke. We have to take into account that the Bills have targeted running backs on 20.4% (19th in NFL), 17.1% (25th) and 13.9% (28th) of their throws in the last three. seasons, so even though Singletary can muster most targets out of the backfield, there’s a cap on how many raw targets turn out to be. Last year could very well have been as high as that number can reach.
The answer here is decidedly Zack Moss. He not only has the opportunity to rely on his work close to the end zone, but can also take more of the load in the passing game. His ceiling is said to be a running back who accounts for 60-70% of the hits from his backfield in a top-five attack. It’s good enough for me to pay for the 107th player off the board.